Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202019 191010 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  23.5  27.8  33.1  32.2  36.9  44.9  55.8  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  34.0  43.0  49.0   7.0   0.0   5.0   0.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  37.0  30.1  23.6  13.5   1.0 -18.3 -56.6  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0  94.0  79.0  78.0  78.0  88.0  84.0 114.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  23.5  27.8  33.1  32.2  36.9  44.9  55.8  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%