Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202019 191012 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.70    138.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        50.0  58.0  70.8  86.1  90.2  99.2 118.1 120.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -9.6 -15.4 -22.3 -31.3 -41.3 -42.9 -43.4 -43.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   196.0 169.0 159.0 121.0  59.0  33.0  42.0  72.0 VF VF VF  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  54.0  47.0  46.0  44.0  48.0  50.0  N  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  50.0  58.0  70.8  86.1  90.2  99.2 118.1 120.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%