Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202019 191013 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.90    144.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        83.9  97.7  95.1 106.8 119.2  96.7  67.2  57.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -3.7 -10.5 -12.9 -13.5 -13.7 -13.9 -14.0 -13.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0  38.0   1.0  26.0  45.0  75.0  55.0  65.0  F  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  41.0  41.0  42.0  44.0  52.0  55.0  57.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  83.9  97.7  95.1 106.8 119.2  96.7  67.2  57.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%