Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212019 191017 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    129.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  23.2  20.7  20.2  20.7  23.7  20.3  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  49.0  49.0  52.0  54.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 132.0 132.0 132.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  15.0  16.0   5.0   1.0  10.0  12.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  56.0  58.0  60.0  59.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.4  23.2  20.7  20.2  20.7  23.7  20.3  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.9%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       24.0%       15.8%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        8.8%        6.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        8.8%        5.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        3.3%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.4%       30.4%       17.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.9%       13.0%        8.5%
 55kt / 48h       11.9%       15.0%       13.4%
 70kt / 48h        6.8%        6.7%        6.8%
 65kt / 72h       17.9%       16.9%       17.4%