Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212019 191017 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    129.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  16.8  16.7  13.3  13.6  15.3  21.5  26.1  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  50.0  43.0  36.0  32.0  29.0  26.0  25.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.1 112.9 110.7 108.6 106.5 106.5 104.4 104.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  23.0  38.0  22.0  13.0  17.0   9.0  32.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  50.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  50.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.6  16.8  16.7  13.3  13.6  15.3  21.5  26.1  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.8%        9.4%        8.1%
 25kt / 24h       20.4%       39.2%       29.8%
 30kt / 24h       11.7%       24.6%       18.1%
 35kt / 24h        8.4%       24.6%       16.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        8.9%        5.5%
 45kt / 36h       11.5%       48.2%       29.8%
 55kt / 36h        9.6%       34.0%       21.8%
 55kt / 48h       12.6%       12.7%       12.6%
 70kt / 48h       10.8%       10.4%       10.6%
 65kt / 72h        4.5%        7.5%        6.0%