Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212019 191019 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60    127.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  37.1  42.0  50.3  57.8  53.5  52.7  55.9  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  35.0  49.0  38.0  16.0  11.0  19.0  37.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.6  81.5  79.4  75.5  71.6  71.6  77.4  77.4  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  77.0  76.0  88.0  99.0  95.0 106.0  97.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  46.0  46.0  44.0  46.0  42.0  43.0  40.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.5  37.1  42.0  50.3  57.8  53.5  52.7  55.9  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.2%        4.7%       10.4%
 25kt / 24h        7.3%        6.3%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        7.3%        2.2%        4.8%
 35kt / 24h        7.3%        2.2%        4.8%
 40kt / 24h        7.3%        1.1%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%