Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212019 191020 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.5  53.4  56.3  54.3  60.9  65.0  58.9  57.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  12.0  18.0  34.0  52.0  48.0  29.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.4  52.4  54.4  56.5  54.4  50.5  48.5  44.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   114.0 104.0  97.0  86.0 125.0 148.0 133.0 112.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  47.0  45.0  43.0  39.0  42.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  48.5  53.4  56.3  54.3  60.9  65.0  58.9  57.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.7%        0.7%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        0.8%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        0.2%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        0.2%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        0.1%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%