Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222019 191019 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30    156.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  20.2  22.5  25.2  25.3  27.9  23.9  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  96.0  91.0  85.0  89.0  94.0  89.0  81.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  12.0   2.0  26.0  43.0  37.0  28.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  65.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.2  20.2  22.5  25.2  25.3  27.9  23.9  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.1%        6.9%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h       18.7%       38.4%       28.5%
 30kt / 24h       11.1%       17.2%       14.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%       17.2%       10.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.5%        8.1%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h       13.8%       47.5%       30.7%
 55kt / 36h       11.4%       27.0%       19.2%
 55kt / 48h       24.3%       25.6%       24.9%
 70kt / 48h       21.9%       14.7%       18.3%
 65kt / 72h       38.1%       38.6%       38.4%