Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222019 191019 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.80    155.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  22.5  24.5  24.6  27.9  21.6  21.0  21.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0  89.0  85.0  90.0  94.0  89.0  82.0  77.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0   2.0  26.0  43.0  37.0  28.0  14.0  21.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.2  22.5  24.5  24.6  27.9  21.6  21.0  21.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.3%        9.9%        9.1%
 25kt / 24h       24.4%       43.0%       33.7%
 30kt / 24h       15.8%       21.6%       18.7%
 35kt / 24h        6.5%       21.6%       14.1%
 40kt / 24h        5.6%       11.5%        8.6%
 45kt / 36h       19.2%       49.7%       34.5%
 55kt / 36h       16.1%       29.5%       22.8%
 55kt / 48h       26.3%       27.2%       26.8%
 70kt / 48h       22.5%       14.4%       18.5%
 65kt / 72h       36.4%       37.6%       37.0%