Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222019 191019 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.00    153.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  24.3  23.5  23.7  24.6  22.9  25.3  20.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  89.0  93.0 100.0  94.0  81.0  73.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0   7.0   7.0  41.0  38.0   9.0   9.0   5.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.8  24.3  23.5  23.7  24.6  22.9  25.3  20.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.1%       22.4%       21.7%
 25kt / 24h       47.9%       62.5%       55.2%
 30kt / 24h       34.9%       47.4%       41.2%
 35kt / 24h       23.3%       47.4%       35.3%
 40kt / 24h       17.3%       30.7%       24.0%
 45kt / 36h       31.6%       61.9%       46.8%
 55kt / 36h       25.2%       45.4%       35.3%
 55kt / 48h       28.7%       34.8%       31.7%
 70kt / 48h       20.4%       17.2%       18.8%
 65kt / 72h       27.6%       28.0%       27.8%