Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222019 191019 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    152.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  21.3  20.4  17.3  20.5  23.9  18.9  16.1  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   89.0  95.0 100.0  90.0  78.0  72.0  67.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  77.0  70.0  42.0  34.0  52.0  48.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.6  21.3  20.4  17.3  20.5  23.9  18.9  16.1  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       38.8%       33.6%       36.2%
 25kt / 24h       68.4%       79.0%       73.7%
 30kt / 24h       57.1%       72.7%       64.9%
 35kt / 24h       43.0%       72.7%       57.9%
 40kt / 24h       36.5%       58.7%       47.6%
 45kt / 36h       46.9%       75.4%       61.2%
 55kt / 36h       34.0%       63.3%       48.6%
 55kt / 48h       48.7%       56.1%       52.4%
 70kt / 48h       23.0%       32.2%       27.6%
 65kt / 72h       47.1%       47.1%       47.1%