Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222019 191020 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60    151.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  26.2  23.1  24.1  24.7  18.9  17.6  19.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   94.0 102.0  97.0  81.0  74.0  71.0  69.0  67.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  71.0  21.0  19.0  53.0  35.0  -2.0  -7.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.5  26.2  23.1  24.1  24.7  18.9  17.6  19.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       49.5%       28.0%       38.7%
 25kt / 24h       57.4%       64.1%       60.7%
 30kt / 24h       50.7%       53.1%       51.9%
 35kt / 24h       39.2%       53.1%       46.1%
 40kt / 24h       39.2%       43.4%       41.3%
 45kt / 36h       42.0%       51.2%       46.6%
 55kt / 36h       29.6%       32.1%       30.8%
 55kt / 48h       31.2%       33.7%       32.4%
 70kt / 48h       19.9%       11.1%       15.5%
 65kt / 72h       17.7%       13.0%       15.4%