Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222019 191020 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    149.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  28.8  24.3  18.4  16.4  19.5  21.2  20.6  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   97.0  80.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  65.0  59.0  43.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  92.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  40.0   9.0  23.0   5.0   1.0  24.0  23.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  64.0  66.0  67.0  64.0  66.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.2  28.8  24.3  18.4  16.4  19.5  21.2  20.6  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       44.1%       23.4%       33.7%
 25kt / 24h       56.5%       61.1%       58.8%
 30kt / 24h       46.9%       56.2%       51.5%
 35kt / 24h       46.9%       56.2%       51.5%
 40kt / 24h       46.9%       44.8%       45.9%
 45kt / 36h       37.5%       39.3%       38.4%
 55kt / 36h       22.9%       22.2%       22.5%
 55kt / 48h       23.1%       28.2%       25.6%
 70kt / 48h        7.8%        5.4%        6.6%
 65kt / 72h        5.1%        4.5%        4.8%