Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222019 191022 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    143.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  22.2  28.3  31.0  37.2  35.5  40.0  49.8  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  35.0  43.0  34.0  28.0  24.0  12.0   6.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.3  34.6  40.0  39.3  37.0  30.1  15.5  11.6  U VU  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  52.0  54.0  62.0  56.0  56.0  90.0  99.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.9  22.2  28.3  31.0  37.2  35.5  40.0  49.8  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.5%        4.8%        9.7%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%        4.3%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%        1.5%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%