Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222019 191024 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    142.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.7  50.2  59.3  72.7  86.4  94.9  94.3  93.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   5.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.5  38.0  38.0  27.7  11.7  -3.3 -23.6 -32.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0 103.0 101.0 123.0 165.0 137.0  91.0 102.0  F  F  F  F VF VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  60.0  65.0  66.0  62.0  62.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  44.7  50.2  59.3  72.7  86.4  94.9  94.3  93.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%