Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222019 191024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20    142.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        53.2  59.5  76.9  87.9  93.8  85.7  83.8  78.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.8  36.2  26.1   9.2 -10.0 -28.3 -38.7 -44.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0  92.0 106.0 152.0 134.0  93.0  97.0  97.0  F  F  F VF VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  63.0  63.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  53.2  59.5  76.9  87.9  93.8  85.7  83.8  78.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%