Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232019 191031 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    106.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  17.4  19.0  24.8  25.1  21.3  19.0  18.9  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  18.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         68.2  62.7  57.8  55.9  65.9  79.4  97.7 135.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  35.0  15.0  22.0  21.0  14.0   1.0  11.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.4  17.4  19.0  24.8  25.1  21.3  19.0  18.9  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        0.5%        1.0%