Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232019 191031 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    104.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  19.8  24.5  22.9  21.3  20.3  19.5  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  65.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         42.8  37.7  38.7  44.6  50.4  67.7 121.5 140.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  10.0  11.0   7.5   4.0  -7.0  -6.0  -8.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  62.5  62.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.5  19.8  24.5  22.9  21.3  20.3  19.5  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%