Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232019 191104 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20     91.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  15.9  18.2  17.3  16.2  20.1  20.6  20.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  75.0  79.0  83.0  84.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  85.0 106.0  89.0  84.0  95.0 116.0 111.0  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  63.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.5  15.9  18.2  17.3  16.2  20.1  20.6  20.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h       14.0%       35.1%       24.5%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%       12.8%        8.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%       12.8%        6.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        5.8%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h       17.4%       55.1%       36.3%
 55kt / 36h       11.6%       30.9%       21.2%
 55kt / 48h       49.5%       42.6%       46.0%
 70kt / 48h       23.5%       27.3%       25.4%
 65kt / 72h       48.5%       62.4%       55.5%