Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232019 191105 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20     91.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  15.1  16.2  15.5  15.7  15.6  14.9  15.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  81.0  82.0  82.0  81.0  80.0  78.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  83.0  90.0  76.0  85.0  87.0 109.0  84.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.8  15.1  16.2  15.5  15.7  15.6  14.9  15.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h       10.4%       31.6%       21.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%       11.5%        7.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%       11.5%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        4.8%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h       13.9%       50.2%       32.0%
 55kt / 36h        8.8%       26.9%       17.8%
 55kt / 48h       49.7%       45.6%       47.6%
 70kt / 48h       22.6%       26.1%       24.4%
 65kt / 72h       47.0%       63.5%       55.2%