Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232019 191105 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     90.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  17.2  16.7  19.5  20.6  18.8  23.7  18.8  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  82.0  66.0  92.0 105.0  91.0  98.0 103.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.4  17.2  16.7  19.5  20.6  18.8  23.7  18.8  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        3.8%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h       15.6%       34.1%       24.8%
 30kt / 24h        8.7%       12.1%       10.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%       11.6%        7.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        6.4%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h       22.6%       50.4%       36.5%
 55kt / 36h       17.2%       26.0%       21.6%
 55kt / 48h       47.5%       34.5%       41.0%
 70kt / 48h       23.7%       20.6%       22.1%
 65kt / 72h       44.2%       50.3%       47.3%