Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232019 191105 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     90.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  18.2  20.4  19.6  17.3  19.1  23.5  27.1  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0  88.0  86.0  85.0  82.0  80.0  81.0  73.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  79.0  85.0  91.0  95.0  82.0  88.0 103.0  F  N  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  61.0  54.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.1  18.2  20.4  19.6  17.3  19.1  23.5  27.1  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        3.2%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h       14.7%       31.1%       22.9%
 30kt / 24h        7.8%        9.8%        8.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        9.4%        5.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        5.4%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h       22.4%       48.3%       35.3%
 55kt / 36h       16.4%       23.1%       19.7%
 55kt / 48h       44.9%       29.1%       37.0%
 70kt / 48h       22.3%       17.0%       19.6%
 65kt / 72h       51.8%       39.3%       45.6%