Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232019 191105 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     89.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  20.6  19.5  15.4  16.6  19.9  24.0  18.6  F  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0  86.0  85.0  82.0  82.0  81.0  79.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  81.0  99.0  78.0  85.0  79.0  98.0 104.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  52.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.2  20.6  19.5  15.4  16.6  19.9  24.0  18.6  F  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        7.0%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h       30.1%       51.6%       40.9%
 30kt / 24h       14.8%       28.6%       21.7%
 35kt / 24h        5.0%       28.6%       16.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%       15.4%        9.1%
 45kt / 36h       27.7%       64.3%       46.0%
 55kt / 36h       19.4%       43.3%       31.3%
 55kt / 48h       49.2%       47.2%       48.2%
 70kt / 48h       22.0%       29.9%       26.0%
 65kt / 72h       52.5%       52.3%       52.4%