Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232019 191106 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     89.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     65.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  21.0  15.1  17.4  19.0  23.0  22.9  26.2  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   90.0  91.0  91.0  90.0  85.0  80.0  68.0  45.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   101.0 107.0  77.0  65.0  81.0 111.0 121.0 108.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  52.0  53.0  49.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.1  21.0  15.1  17.4  19.0  23.0  22.9  26.2  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        7.0%        5.4%
 25kt / 24h       32.9%       54.7%       43.8%
 30kt / 24h       15.8%       31.0%       23.4%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%       31.0%       17.8%
 40kt / 24h        4.6%       17.1%       10.9%
 45kt / 36h       30.1%       65.9%       48.0%
 55kt / 36h       20.7%       44.1%       32.4%
 55kt / 48h       49.6%       45.3%       47.4%
 70kt / 48h       21.7%       28.7%       25.2%
 65kt / 72h       57.0%       31.2%       44.1%