Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232019 191106 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     89.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  17.2  18.9  19.8  25.0  24.1  26.0  31.4  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  82.0  83.0  78.0  72.0  62.0  49.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  66.0  82.0  81.0 111.0 122.0 108.0 122.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  53.0  50.0  52.0  50.0  51.0  50.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.6  17.2  18.9  19.8  25.0  24.1  26.0  31.4  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        4.2%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h       19.8%       39.7%       29.8%
 30kt / 24h        8.4%       18.6%       13.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%       18.6%       11.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        9.0%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h       16.8%       45.4%       31.1%
 55kt / 36h        9.0%       22.6%       15.8%
 55kt / 48h       35.4%       29.0%       32.2%
 70kt / 48h       23.4%       13.5%       18.4%
 65kt / 72h       45.0%       17.3%       31.1%