Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232019 191106 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     89.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  16.3  18.3  24.0  29.2  27.4  29.1  37.8  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  84.0  81.0  71.0  62.0  49.0  36.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  98.0 127.0  95.0  98.0  64.0  65.0  90.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  58.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  50.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.1  16.3  18.3  24.0  29.2  27.4  29.1  37.8  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        7.9%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h       30.4%       53.5%       42.0%
 30kt / 24h       12.2%       32.5%       22.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.2%       32.5%       18.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       16.4%        8.8%
 45kt / 36h       18.4%       53.6%       36.0%
 55kt / 36h        9.3%       30.6%       20.0%
 55kt / 48h       31.6%       29.7%       30.7%
 70kt / 48h       16.8%       13.6%       15.2%
 65kt / 72h       29.5%       16.1%       22.8%