Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232019 191107 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50     90.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  25.4  24.0  27.5  29.2  35.1  34.4  30.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  97.0 106.0  66.0  64.0  59.0  32.0  24.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.1  25.4  24.0  27.5  29.2  35.1  34.4  30.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        3.4%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        9.4%       25.3%       17.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%       12.4%        7.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       12.4%        7.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        4.2%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%       21.4%       12.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        7.9%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        8.3%        5.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%