Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232019 191107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00     88.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     96.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  26.2  26.9  32.1  36.3  39.7  38.3  39.8  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   107.0 102.0  93.0  91.0  81.0  45.0  15.0  25.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  55.0  54.0  56.0  53.0  53.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.0  26.2  26.9  32.1  36.3  39.7  38.3  39.8  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.1%       24.3%       28.7%
 25kt / 24h       48.0%       60.6%       54.3%
 30kt / 24h       39.7%       56.2%       48.0%
 35kt / 24h       39.7%       56.2%       48.0%
 40kt / 24h       17.7%       31.1%       24.4%
 45kt / 36h       17.0%       39.0%       28.0%
 55kt / 36h        5.8%       21.0%       13.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%       10.9%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        3.4%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%