Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232019 191107 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00     88.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     96.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  26.5  31.7  35.0  38.0  40.5  41.8  44.7  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3  81.6  50.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   114.0  96.0 105.0  81.0  43.0  11.0   0.0  15.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.6  26.5  31.7  35.0  38.0  40.5  41.8  44.7  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%        7.4%        7.6%
 25kt / 24h       18.4%       30.5%       24.4%
 30kt / 24h       10.2%       21.9%       16.1%
 35kt / 24h       10.2%       21.9%       16.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        8.7%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%       11.7%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        3.7%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%