Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232019 191109 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20     87.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.4  52.1  53.3  57.2  56.9  55.8  51.8  47.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         10.9  -0.9  -4.2  -4.2   0.0   4.7  12.0  16.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  13.0   5.0 -12.0 -14.0 -31.0 -22.0 -37.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  44.0  43.0  39.0  36.0  33.0  31.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  45.4  52.1  53.3  57.2  56.9  55.8  51.8  47.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%