Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232019 191110 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.00     90.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        56.1  57.1  59.2  61.2  66.1  69.7  68.9  66.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         33.4  33.4  29.7  27.1  23.4  20.7  17.2  15.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0 -33.0 -15.0 -42.0 -32.0 -33.0 -23.0 -40.0  U VU  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  42.0  35.0  31.0  28.0  27.0  26.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  56.1  57.1  59.2  61.2  66.1  69.7  68.9  66.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%