Rapid Intensification Guidance WP232019 191110 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.80 91.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 Wind Shear [kt] 58.9 58.5 55.7 58.2 66.9 69.8 66.5 62.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 47.4 42.6 40.4 37.7 33.4 29.6 28.7 27.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -28.0 -24.0 -52.0 -41.0 -50.0 -37.0 -36.0 -25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 35.0 30.0 28.0 26.0 24.0 24.0 23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 58.9 58.5 55.7 58.2 66.9 69.8 66.5 62.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%