Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242019 191103 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    154.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  31.9  26.7  23.1  23.7  25.4  25.7  32.1  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  86.0  96.0  87.0  75.0  68.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  51.0  16.0  17.0  23.0  41.0  38.0  30.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  75.0  71.0  71.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.2  31.9  26.7  23.1  23.7  25.4  25.7  32.1  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.2%        4.6%        6.4%
 25kt / 24h       21.3%       31.3%       26.3%
 30kt / 24h       13.5%       14.3%       13.9%
 35kt / 24h        6.4%       14.3%       10.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.6%        8.3%        6.9%
 45kt / 36h       16.0%       29.1%       22.5%
 55kt / 36h        9.4%       12.2%       10.8%
 55kt / 48h       15.8%       13.8%       14.8%
 70kt / 48h        7.7%        4.1%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h        9.3%        3.8%        6.5%