Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242019 191103 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    154.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.6  26.6  24.5  22.9  22.7  25.3  28.4  38.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  97.0  92.0  77.0  71.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  20.0  16.0  40.0  53.0  49.0  25.0  28.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  70.0  67.0  63.0  58.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.6  26.6  24.5  22.9  22.7  25.3  28.4  38.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.8%        8.4%       10.1%
 25kt / 24h       30.9%       42.3%       36.6%
 30kt / 24h       19.4%       26.3%       22.8%
 35kt / 24h       15.8%       26.3%       21.0%
 40kt / 24h        6.0%       15.3%       10.6%
 45kt / 36h       20.9%       36.3%       28.6%
 55kt / 36h       12.1%       18.2%       15.1%
 55kt / 48h       15.6%       16.3%       16.0%
 70kt / 48h        6.6%        4.6%        5.6%
 65kt / 72h        7.4%        3.6%        5.5%