Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242019 191104 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    152.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  23.1  24.2  27.0  32.1  33.7  43.7  43.3  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  65.0  50.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  20.0  29.0  49.0  42.0  79.0  83.0  66.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  64.0  66.0  63.0  61.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.7  23.1  24.2  27.0  32.1  33.7  43.7  43.3  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       61.9%       23.9%       42.9%
 25kt / 24h       42.4%       33.9%       38.2%
 30kt / 24h       36.7%       27.7%       32.2%
 35kt / 24h       36.7%       27.7%       32.2%
 40kt / 24h       20.5%       14.4%       17.5%
 45kt / 36h       66.5%       17.3%       41.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%