Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242019 191105 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    151.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]    100.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  24.6  25.0  29.2  33.7  43.4  42.6  39.4  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  64.0  51.0  41.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  49.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  25.0  38.0  47.0  45.0  73.0  64.0  50.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  61.0  60.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  59.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.6  24.6  25.0  29.2  33.7  43.4  42.6  39.4  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.3%       21.5%       40.4%
 25kt / 24h       33.4%       24.7%       29.1%
 30kt / 24h       27.3%       18.9%       23.1%
 35kt / 24h       27.3%       18.9%       23.1%
 40kt / 24h       13.1%        8.0%       10.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%