Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242019 191106 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    150.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  37.5  36.3  30.7  33.8  34.8  32.2  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  44.0  34.0  28.0  23.0  17.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         20.0  20.0  19.3  14.6   7.9  -0.6 -10.2 -10.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  80.0  66.0  46.0  29.0  44.0  61.0  46.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  58.0  51.0  50.0  48.0  49.0  51.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.4  37.5  36.3  30.7  33.8  34.8  32.2  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%