Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242019 191106 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40    151.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.3  32.6  31.7  27.3  22.9  25.4  37.0  43.7  U  U  U  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  26.0  18.0   7.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.3  42.0  35.1  24.4  16.6  14.8   7.7  -6.4  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  43.0  18.0  43.0  47.0  60.0  59.0  69.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  55.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.3  32.6  31.7  27.3  22.9  25.4  37.0  43.7  U  U  U  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%