Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242019 191107 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90    151.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  35.8  32.3  25.5  24.8  33.5  35.7  47.4  U  U  U  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  44.0  33.0  24.0  20.0  13.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         57.0  52.3  41.5  33.5  33.5  26.2  10.0   5.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  28.0  44.0  35.0  66.0  66.0  69.0  72.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  53.0  56.0  63.0  64.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.9  35.8  32.3  25.5  24.8  33.5  35.7  47.4  U  U  U  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%