Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242019 191107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    151.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  35.0  26.8  24.5  32.0  39.5  41.2  42.5  U  U  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  37.0  26.0  23.0  17.0  10.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.6  62.9  54.4  54.4  46.6  32.7  23.6  15.4  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  54.0  43.0  52.0  73.0  67.0  71.0  57.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  53.0  51.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.4  35.0  26.8  24.5  32.0  39.5  41.2  42.5  U  U  N  N  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%