Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242019 191107 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    152.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  29.7  30.4  35.1  40.0  36.5  41.1  47.5  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  24.0  20.0  19.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.6  48.5  48.5  44.8  29.6  22.2  16.7   8.2  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  73.0  52.0  55.0  58.0  60.0  57.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  48.0  48.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.0  29.7  30.4  35.1  40.0  36.5  41.1  47.5  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%