Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242019 191108 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.50    156.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.3  51.2  54.3  55.4  55.6  54.6  64.5  69.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  35.8  26.7  18.8  14.7  10.0   2.6  -4.2  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  49.0  41.0  28.0  29.0  16.0 -13.0  38.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  65.0  67.0  64.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  45.3  51.2  54.3  55.4  55.6  54.6  64.5  69.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%