Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242019 191108 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.50    159.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.6  55.6  51.3  51.9  51.8  50.6  74.1  90.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.4  39.3  37.0  32.7  29.7  22.4  13.4   7.3  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  46.0  36.0  28.0   9.0  17.0  41.0  38.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  61.0  57.0  53.0  51.0  54.0  62.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  49.6  55.6  51.3  51.9  51.8  50.6  74.1  90.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%