Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252019 191106 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    116.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    156.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  36.6  40.4  43.3  41.8  38.3  39.8  44.0  N  U  U VU VU  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  32.0  32.0  33.0  32.0  32.0  30.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  81.0  83.0  67.0  33.0  18.0  61.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.0  36.6  40.4  43.3  41.8  38.3  39.8  44.0  N  U  U VU VU  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        3.3%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        7.2%       16.0%       11.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        5.5%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%        5.5%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%       12.4%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        3.5%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        3.2%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%