Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252019 191106 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  34.4  38.9  39.3  34.0  36.8  40.7  42.4  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  31.0  29.0  27.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0  61.0  63.0  31.0  17.0  41.0  50.0  30.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.1  34.4  38.9  39.3  34.0  36.8  40.7  42.4  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.9%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       11.2%        7.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        3.3%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        3.3%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        9.3%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.8%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%