Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252019 191107 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    117.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  39.7  39.6  39.3  45.8  46.1  46.5  48.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  71.0  67.0  68.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  38.0  29.0  20.0  26.0  19.0  61.0  55.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.5  39.7  39.6  39.3  45.8  46.1  46.5  48.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        3.6%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h        9.0%       16.9%       12.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        6.8%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%        6.8%        4.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.9%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        7.6%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%