Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252019 191107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    117.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.8  37.0  37.5  40.8  41.8  43.0  44.1  43.8 VU  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  67.0  65.0  60.0  56.0  50.0  47.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  24.0  28.0   6.0   4.0  49.0  51.0  60.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  66.0  68.0  66.0  69.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  40.8  37.0  37.5  40.8  41.8  43.0  44.1  43.8 VU  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.2%        8.8%       13.0%
 25kt / 24h       22.3%       28.2%       25.2%
 30kt / 24h       13.8%       15.9%       14.9%
 35kt / 24h       13.6%       15.9%       14.8%
 40kt / 24h        5.9%        7.9%        6.9%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%       13.4%        9.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%        4.6%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        3.5%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%