Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252019 191107 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    117.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.3  33.4  36.0  38.1  42.0  43.3  45.5  46.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  65.0  60.0  59.0  53.0  48.0  47.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 102.0  97.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0   2.0   0.0 -19.0  14.0  45.0  57.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  70.0  64.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.3  33.4  36.0  38.1  42.0  43.3  45.5  46.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.7%        7.8%       10.8%
 25kt / 24h       16.8%       23.3%       20.1%
 30kt / 24h       11.2%       13.3%       12.3%
 35kt / 24h       10.5%       13.3%       11.9%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%        6.6%        5.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%        8.1%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        2.4%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%