Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252019 191108 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    116.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  39.2  41.5  46.2  43.4  44.1  42.1  37.8  U  U VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  58.0  53.0  47.0  44.0  39.0  28.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  97.0  92.3  85.7  41.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  22.0  44.0  20.0  27.0  33.0  18.0  24.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  71.0  69.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.4  39.2  41.5  46.2  43.4  44.1  42.1  37.8  U  U VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.7%        2.9%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%        8.1%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        3.7%        3.3%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        3.3%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        1.8%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%