Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252019 191109 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    115.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.6  43.3  49.7  48.5  50.8  48.8  42.4  35.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  53.0  44.0  39.0  34.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 104.3  97.3  92.9  56.5  22.4   3.2  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  32.0  43.0  54.0  36.0  29.0  17.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  70.0  72.0  68.0  67.0  64.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  39.6  43.3  49.7  48.5  50.8  48.8  42.4  35.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.8%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.4%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%